(Welcome to the latest edition of a new weekly feature for Fox Valley Magazine, Jeff’s Sports Bets. Local punter Jeff gives his methodology and picks each Friday for MLB games If you’re unfamiliar with betting, check out the introductory article, where Jeff begins by defining terms and discussing his process. Enjoy!)
There’s no need to provide any analysis on last week’s bets because, with the exception of the six postponed games, we lost every single one going down $240.00. That kind of thing doesn’t happen very often but it’s horrifying when it does.
Remember! We’re not trying to be psychics here. Through a sound statistical analysis, we’re trying to predict the most likely outcome of an MLB game and sometimes the most likely possibilities fail on a grand scale.
But if we stick to our respective well-researched system, it will work out over the long haul.
Again, you’re seeing just a snippet of my betting. The correlated same-game parlay system was up $2,040 in April, and despite some not-so-good May days, it’s still up $261 for the month.
That slew of postponements didn’t help our cause, either. When we’re aiming to win just a third of our bets, a larger sample size provides more opportunities for the law of averages to work out in our favor.
Please also note that had we won just one bet, it would’ve cut our losses in half. Two wins and we would’ve broken even. That’s the real power of this system – a lot of upside and very little downside.
When we get our butts kicked like that the only thing we can do is repeat the mantra “mama said there’d be days like this,” let the losses roll off our backs, and get back to making solid bets. So, let’s do just that.
Reds (Mahle) mline vs. Pirates (H) (M. Keller) – Over 8
Believe it or not, the lowly Reds and Pirates are ranked first and fifth in OPS (over the last 7 days). Add the Reds hitting the over at an MLB leading 66 percent pace, the two starters having a rough go of it, both bullpens in the bottom third of the league, and the over is clearly the best bet.
As far as picking a winner, Mahle was a more than respectable pitcher last year and I firmly believe he’ll recover his old form. Keller, on the other hand, sported a 6.17 ERA last season which would explain his current 6.10 mark. So, we’ll put $30 on the Reds and the over.
Draftkings +272 = $81.81
Brewers (Burnes) rline vs. Miami (H) (P. Lopez) – Over 6.5
Messrs. Burnes and Lopez are two of the best pitchers in baseball right now which would typically have us considering the under. But neither bullpen is setting the world on fire, and following our sports teams and players are streaky commandment:
- Milwaukee has gone over in 8 of their last 9 games
- The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 Miami home games
- The total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 between this teams in Miami
So, we’ll go with the over.
As far as picking a winner, Miami is 2 – 8 in the last 10 games, the Brewer are 18 – 9 as favorites, and Milwaukee is simply the better team.
Draftkings +329 = $98.85
Astros (Valdez) rline vs. Nationals (H) (Josiah Gray) – Under 8.5
Houston has won 10 straight, they crush the Nats in every possible statistical category, and Washington is 5 – 12 against the runline at home. Add Washington hitting the under in 13 out of their 17 home games with Houston doing the same in 14 out of 19 road games and we have a bet/
Draftkings +300 = $90.00
Blue Jays (Gausman) mline vs. Rays (H) (Rasmussen) – Over 7
These teams are very evenly matched, but Gausman has proven to be the better pitcher and Toronto’s lineup has far more firepower. Add the Jays going over in 5 of their last 6 and the Rays doing the same in 8 of their last 12 to two lousy bullpens and 7 runs is WAY too low.
Fanduel +265 = $79.62
Mets (Scherzer) rline vs. Seattle (H) (Gonzales) – Over 7.5
The Mariners are 5 – 11 on the road, they’ve lost 8 of their last 10 games, and their 20th ranked bullpen (over the last 2 weeks) is nothing to brag about. Meanwhile, the Mets are the second-best team in baseball, Scherzer is pitching like he’s 27 not 37, and the Mets have a top ten bullpen.
With the Mets killer lineup and the Mariners in the bottom third of the American League in ERA, hits allowed, runs allowed, earned runs, home runs allowed, and walks, even with Scherzer on the mound 7.5 runs is too low.
Draftkings +290 = $82.14
Orioles (Lyles) mline vs. Tigers (H) (Rodriguez) – Under 7.5
The Tigers are the second worst team in baseball, they’re 1 – 9 in their last 10, and they’re ranked dead last in OPS. Baltimore is a surprising 6 – 4 in their last 10, they’ve won 2 straight, and their bullpen is ranked 8th. With two reasonable pitchers, two good bullpens, and both teams hitting the under at a 66 percent rate, that’s the way we’ll go.
Draftkings +349 = $104.71
Padres (Darvish) mline vs. Atlanta (H) (Fried) – Under 7
There are times statistics don’t matter and this is one of them. When you can get the better team with the better pitcher at a +145 moneyline, leap at it! I don’t get this line at all. Add two excellent pitchers to the under cashing in 7 of the last 8 games between these teams in San Diego, and the under it is!
Fanduel +401 = $120.47
Twins (H) (S. Gray) rline vs. Guardians (Dunning) – Over 8
Every now and then the choice is easy. With Civale’s 9.45 ERA to Gray’s 3.48, and the Twins winning 9 of their last 10 at home, we’ll go with Minnesota. Add the wind blowing out at 10 mph to that horrific ERA and we have an over.
Draftkings +320 = $96.19
Alright! With a large slate of Friday evening games, my deadline looming, and your general understanding of the methodology we’re using here, let’s roll through our final picks.
Giants (Webb) mline vs. Cardinals (H) (Hicks) – Over 7.5
Draftkings +256 = $77.07
Rockies (H) (Freeland) mline vs. Royals (Greinke) – Under 10.5
Draftkings +227 = $68.18
Angels (Silseth) rline vs. A’s (H) (Jefferies) – Over 8
Draftkings +310 = $93.00
Dodgers (H) (Kershaw) rline vs. Phillies (Gibson) – Under 8.5
Draftkings +260 = $78.00
Since I couldn’t get a handle on the Red Sox – Rangers or the Cubs – Diamondbacks game, and I don’t want to bet on the Yankees against the White Sox, we won’t touch them.
That’s it for this week. I’d say let’s hope for better luck this round but we have nowhere to go but up. Happy betting!