According to a report from Space.com, a large Chinese rocket body will likely crash back to Earth today, but nobody knows exactly when or where.
The 25-ton (22.5 metric tons) core stage of a Long March 5B rocket will reenter Earth’s atmosphere at 11:15 p.m. EDT (1805 GMT), plus or minus 1 hour, according to the latest forecast by researchers at The Aerospace Corporation. The booster has spent less than a week in orbit; it lofted Wentian, the second module for China’s Tiangong space station, on July 24.
According to The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies, most of the rocket body will burn up, but big chunks of it will survive the fiery passage — probably 5.5 tons to 9.9 tons (5 to 9 metric tons).
As late as yesterday evening, one of the possible trajectories calculated by scientists place the rocket directly over the Western Suburbs of Chicago, placing the Fox Valley squarely in the range of possible re-entry points.
The likelihood of the rocket debris hitting the area, however, is vanishingly small. The latest estimate (below) shows one potential trajectory moving slightly south of the area, although the difficulty of predicting with any precision is fairly low.
So, don’t take out any life insurance policies just yet. But keep your eyes to the sky late this morning. After all, given the last few years, we’d suggest that anything is possible.
