(Welcome to the latest edition of a new weekly feature for Fox Valley Magazine, Jeff’s Sports Bets. Local punter Jeff gives his methodology and picks each Friday for NBA and, eventually, MLB games. And maybe a little March Madness thrown in. If you’re unfamiliar with betting, check out the introductory article, where Jeff begins by defining terms and discussing his process. Enjoy!)
Bank After Fourth Week: DOWN $121.71
I’m pleased to say that we did a little bit better last week!
Part of the “joy” of sports betting, as one of my favorite authors put it is, “enduring gut-wrenching losing streaks.” The key to surviving those tough times is to avoid falling prey to the inevitable negative emotions that arise during the tougher times and sticking with a system that’s worked over the long-term.
With that in mind, lets review last week’s games.
Hornets (H) 101 – Jazz 107
The Jazz woke up from their ATS torpor long enough to beat the surging Hornets by a little more than the 3.5-point spread. You have to give Utah and their middle-of-the-pack defense credit for holding the NBA’s seventh most potent offense to a scant 101 points. Regardless, it’s a loss.
Pistons 100 (H) – Wizards 97
And speaking of gut wrenching, the current ATS covering machine known as the Detroit Pistons failed to cover the 3.5-point spread by a scant half point. While I would take this bet every time, this time is a loss.
Hawks -121 (H) – Warriors 110
When you consider their stellar home record, how they’re clinging to that last Eastern Conference playoff spot, and the Stephen Curry-less Warriors, I thought Atlanta was greatly disrespected by that scant -2.5-point spread and that, indeed, turned out to be the case. It’s a win!
Sixers 122 – Clippers (H) 97
As we noted, the Sixers are one of those rare teams that play better on the road and they certainly proved it against the slumping Clippers by easily eclipsing the 5.5-point spread. It’s another win.
Timberwolves (H) 116 – Mavericks 95
As stipulated, if Karl-Anthony Towns suited up for Minnesota we’d take the -2.5 spread, and he did, so we did, and the Wolves made short work of the Mavs. That’s our third win.
Had we bet $25 per game with the average -110 hold, we would’ve won $68.19 and lost $50.00 for a net gain of $18.19. It’s certainly not a ton of money, but any sports bettor will tell you that they’ll take a 3 win and 2 loss night every time.
With our first winning day under our belt, let’s see if we can build on that success this week.
Mavericks -8.5 vs. Wizards (H)
The spread is a little steep for the defensive minded Mavs on the road, but they’ve been playing so well lately that I’m reasonably confident they’ll cover against the recently resurgent Wizards.
Critical stats:
- Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
- Dallas is 16-4 SU against Washington in their last 20 games
- The Mavericks have won by an average 12 points in their last five victories
- The Mavericks have won three straight
- The 538 Blog gives the Mavs a healthy 68 percent chance of winning the game
- The Wizards are 7-19 ATS after a win
This one is a close call, but that 12-point average victory margin combined with their sixth-best defense and the possibility of improving their playoff seeding is enough to get me to put money on the Mavericks.
Raptors -10 vs. Magic (H)
You know I don’t like double-digit NBA spreads and it would behoove us not to forget that the Magic aren’t the pushover they were earlier in the season. They beat the Timberwolves on March 11, they took the Sixers to OT on March 13, and they’ve kept it close in the majority of their recent losses. But while caution can be a sports bettors best friend, Toronto is on the kind of late season roll that has them rapidly climbing the playoff seeding ladder.
Critical stats:
- Toronto has won four straight and is 8-12 SU in their last ten games.
- The Raptors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games
- The Raptors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games
- Toronto has won by a whooping an average 19 points during that winning streak
- The Magic have lost four straight and are 3-7 SU in their last ten games
- The Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games
- Orlando has lost by an average 11 points during their losing streak
The Raptors are clearly the best bet here.
Celtics (H) -15 vs. Pacers
We have another steep spread here and Boston has uncharacteristically lost their last two games, but while the Celtics are just two games out of the top Eastern playoff spot, the lottery bound Pacers have lost five straight and seemed to have waved the white flag.
Critical stats:
- The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games
- Boston already beat the Celtics by 21 and 19 points on the road this season
- The Pacers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games
- Indiana has lost 5 straight by an average 17 points
Again, I generally avoid 15-point favorite spreads, but with Indiana having long since faded into lottery pick oblivion, I’m gonna give this one the 53-plus percentage shot.
Though the Pistons have been ATS animals going an incredible 16-2-2 ATS the spread in their last 20 games, with key players Marvin Bagley, Chris Smith and Jerami Grant out, and with nine Thunder players out, including Derrick Favors, Darius Bazley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, we’ll skip the Pistons -4.5 vs. Thunder (H) because it’s impossible to get a handle on it.
Bucks (H) -7.5 vs. Clippers
With the Bucks going 7-3 in their last ten and the slumping Clippers racking up the opposite 3-7 record in the same span, I’m surprised the spread isn’t larger. And that’s particularly true with the Bucks just half a game behind the Eastern Conference leading Miami Heat. Meanwhile, the Clippers will likely do no better or worse than the eighth Western Conference seed, so they don’t have nearly as much as an incentive this evening.
Critical stats:
- The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
- The bucks have won by an average 10 points in their last seven victories
- The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games
- The Clippers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games in Milwaukee
- Los Angeles has lost by an average 12 points in their last seven losses
Add the Clippers coming out on the wrong end of tough 135-130 overtime loss to the Bulls last night and that tired team will be no match for Milwaukee.
In the contest between the first and second Western seed titans, Suns -7.5 vs. Grizzlies (H), each with nine and six game winning streaks respectively, I cannot for the life of me come up with better that 50-50 odds. With that -110 hold hanging over our head’s like the Sword of Damocles, we’ll let this one go. It oughtta be a really fun game to watch, however.
We’ll similarly dispense with the battle of the basement dwellers, Kings -2 vs. Rockets (H), because it’s the flip side of the same can’t-get-a-handle-on-it coin. And we don’t bet on coin flips.
Spurs (H) – 15 vs. Trail Blazers
Yes! We’re betting on another two-touchdown spread favorite, but with the Spurs winning four of their last five and the Blazers in a 1-9 free fall, I’m pretty good here. Not to mention that the Spurs last lost to the red-hot Grizzlies by just one point and they beat Portland at on the road by a NCAA-like 37 points on March 23rd.
Critical stats:
- The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
- The 538 Blog picked the Spurs to win by 19.5 points
- Portland is 5-11 ATS as the underdog in their last 16 games
- Portland is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games
- Portland lost by an average 18 points in their last 9 losses
- The Blazers are 10-26 on the road for the season
With San Antonio clinging to the 10thWestern seed on tie breakers with the Lakers, that incentive should be more than enough to get the Spurs to roll over the hapless Trail Blazers.
Nuggets (H) – 2.5 vs. Timberwolves
With neither team covering the spread these days and the Wolves suspect 18-21 road record, were it not for the small spread I’d avoid this game, too. But with the wolves losing four of their last five and the Nuggets winning four of their last five, I’m willing to take a shot on the home team for that less than that three-pointer price.
Critical stats:
- Denver has won by an average seven points in their last four wins
- The 538 Blog gives the Nuggets a 67 percent chance of winning this game
- Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last five games
- Minnesota is 2-12 SU against Denver in their last 14 games
- The Wolves have lost by a surprising average 14 points in their last four losses
So, I will happily cede 2.5 points to the slumping Timberwolves on this one.
With Lebron James and his sprained ankle still questionable for tonight’s game, the Pelicans -2 vs. Lakers (H) is too tough to call. If James sits again, considering the Pelicans have won five of their last seven and the Lakers have lost four straight, I’d risk the 2.5 points with the Pelicans. But if LeBron plays, then, as that halcyon saying goes, “all bets are off.”
Wow! It’s a busy ten-game night in the NBA, and with no more than six games left in the season, it’s only going to get more interesting, and the playoffs are likely to be even more fascinating.
See you next Friday!
