(Welcome to the latest edition of a new weekly feature for Fox Valley Magazine, Jeff’s Sports Bets. Local punter Jeff gives his methodology and picks each Friday for NBA and, eventually, MLB games. And maybe a little March Madness thrown in. If you’re unfamiliar with betting, check out the introductory article, where Jeff begins by defining terms and discussing his process. Enjoy!)
Bank After Third Week: DOWN $139.90
Well, neither our bets nor the Loyola Ramblers did very well last week, with the Ramblers being the far greater disappointment. So, let’s see what happened:
Mavericks 101 – Sixers (H) 111
Despite everything adding up for the Mavericks and the Sixers poor home record, they managed to eke out a win, cover the 2.5 point spread, and we lost the bet.
Raptors (H) 123 – Lakers 128
The Lakers certainly didn’t need those extra 9 points beating the Raptors outright for just their tenth road win this season. Given the numbers, I would take this bet every time but that doesn’t make it any less of a loss.
Knicks 100 (H) – Wizards 97
At least our team won this one, but since they didn’t cover the 6-point spread it’s another loss.
Nuggets 116 – Cavaliers 119
Denver had this game well in hand until the middle of the fourth quarter when they let the Cavs sneak back in, and then they gave it away in overtime. It’s another loss.
Spurs 91 (H) – Pelicans 124
Apparently the Pelicans did not miss Brandon Ingrams 22.8 points per game nearly as much as I thought they would and they handily dispatched the Spurs on the road. It’s a loss.
Celtics 126 – Kings (H) 97
Though that -9.5-spread made me nervous the autopilot Celtics are racking up the big wins and making a case for their title hopes. A win!
Suns (H) 129 – Bulls 102
Another big win for the NBA leading Suns who blew right past the -5-point spread. It’s a win.
Had we bet $25 per game with the average -110 hold, we would’ve won $45.46 and lost $125.00 for a net loss of $79.54. It was certainly not the best night, but after reviewing the bets – and I thoroughly review the losses – I wouldn’t change a thing.
Sharp bettors will tell you that a great part of sports betting success is avoiding that winning streak euphoria while not collapsing into the losing streak blues. Considering that we’re risking just one percent of our bankroll per bet, we’re still in good shape. But it would’ve been a lot more fun if my betting column debut went a little bit smoother. That said, let’s move forward.
Hornets (H) +3.5 vs. Jazz
Speaking of streaky sports teams, the Hornets and Jazz are clearly moving in opposite directions. When you add that Charlotte finally seems to be figuring it out (7-3 in their last 10) to their being one game away from the Eastern Conference eighth seed to Utah’s recent dismal road record and the Hornets are clearly the better bet. But let’s take a closer look.
Critical stats:
- The Hornets are 4-2 ATS in the last six games
- Charlottes is 6-1 SU in their last seven games
- The Jazz are 1-7 ATS in the last eight road games
- The Jazz’ best shooter, Bojan Bogdanovic, is out for this game
Considering the Jazz have had such a difficult time beating the spread of late, the Hornets plus the points is the best bet.
Pistons (H) -3.5 vs. Wizards
This is another case of two teams heading in opposite directions, and though neither one of these will make the playoffs this year, the Pistons have been playing for a little bit of pride in the second half.
Critical stats:
- Detroit is 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games
- Detroit is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home games
- Washington is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games
- The Wizards are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games
- Washington is 1-8 SU up their last nine games
- The Wizards have lost those eight games by an average of 12 points
Since everything points to the Pistons at home, it’s a bet!
Hawks -2.5 (H) vs. Warriors
It’s hard to back the mercurial Atlanta Hawks these days, but between their great home record (23-14) and the Stephen Curry-less Warriors, I think we’re good with giving away a little less than a three-pointer. The Hawks are currently clinging to the last East playoff spot which should also provide a little more incentive.
Critical stats:
- The Hawks are 7-1 SU in their last eight home games
- The 538 Blog gives the Hawks a 64 percent chance of winning this game
- The Warriors have lost three of their last four games
- Two of those losses came at the hands of the lottery bound Magic and Spurs
- Golden State’s road record isn’t that great (19-16) for a third seed playoff team
This is a close call, but when you add up that Atlanta needs to win this one, the Warriors are without Curry, and we’re talking about a very small spread here, you get a 53 percent plus chance of winning with the Hawks.
We’re going to avoid the Mavericks vs. Timberwolves game because Karl-Anthony Towns is listed as questionable for the Wolves, and without his 25 points per game and 10 rebounds Minnesota will have a much tougher time. If Towns plays I’d take the Wolves at home -2.5 points.
The same goes for the Knicks vs. Heat with the Heat potentially missing Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson. If those two, I’d happily take the at-home Heat -7 points, but if they don’t, the Knicks have a real shot at covering that spread.
We’ll also pass on the Rockers vs. Trail Blazers game because both teams are such a mess that you can’t begin to sort out the stats.
Sixers -5.5 vs. Clippers (H)
Don’t’ forget that the Sixers are one of the five NBA teams that play better away (24-11) than they do at home (21-16). When you add that the Clippers have lost four straight as part of a 3-7 slump, you have a pretty good bet.
Critical stats:
- The Sixers are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 games against the Clippers
- The 538 Blog gives Philly a 60 percent chance of winning this game outright
- The Clippers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games
- The Clippers are 1-4 ATS at home in their last five games against Philly
Meanwhile, the Sixers, who still have a shot at the first Eastern Conference seed, are coming into this game at full strength while the Clippers certainly can’t say the same thing.
Please remember that any betting spread is always a moving target, so they might be marginally different by the time you place your bets. Having done our due diligence, let’s hope for a few more wins this week!
