(Welcome to the latest edition of a new weekly feature for Fox Valley Magazine, Jeff’s Sports Bets. Local punter Jeff gives his methodology and picks each Friday for NBA and, eventually, MLB games. And maybe a little March Madness thrown in. If you’re unfamiliar with betting, check out the introductory article, where Jeff begins by defining terms and discussing his process. Enjoy!)
Bank After Second Week: DOWN $60.36
We did a little better this week, essentially breaking even with three wins and three losses. But as we’ll soon see, “breaking even” in sports betting never really means breaking even. So, without further ado, let’s review last week’s picks:
Timberwolves 110 – Magic (H) 118
It would seem that I’ve developed a capacity to pick the biggest Friday upset and this game certainly fits that bill. The Wolves were supposed to win by seven but lost by eight, instead. And the fact that the surging playoff bound Timberwolves lost to a team with the worst home record in the NBA is exactly why they call it “betting.” I’ll take this bet every time but this time it’s a loss.
Pistons 103 – Celtics (H) 114
We did a little better here with Detroit handily covering the unduly large 14-point spread. Some sharp bettors say you can’t beat the sportsbooks outright, but this two-touchdown spread is a perfect example of how fear and greed can affect the sportsbooks every bit as much as they affect the stock market. The Pistons may not make the playoffs, but they continue to come together as the season winds down, so this one’s a win.
Heat (H) 117 – Cavaliers 105
It wasn’t even close. The Eastern Conference leading Heat with their NBA second best home record easily dispensed with the fading injury ridden Cavaliers by far more than the 6.5-point margin. It’s a win!
Mavericks 113 – Rockets (H) 100
Though a minus 10.5 NBA spread always makes me nervous, with the Mavs quietly climbing the playoff seed ladder and the Rockets fading into draft lottery oblivion, this was another solid bet that counts as a win.
Jazz 102 – Spurs (H) 104
On any given Friday, right? Clinging to their slim play-in playoff hopes and despite their lousy home record, the Spurs managed to beat the Jazz in a surprisingly low scoring contest for two teams known for their offensive output. The Spurs didn’t need the six-point handicap to win it and this one is a loss.
Suns (H) 112 – Raptors 117
This match marks the third upset of the day with the wrong team winning by the five-point spread. You have to give the Raptors credit for holding the NBA’s best home team with the third best offense to just 112 points. But that doesn’t help our cause because it’s a loss.
By the way if the Suns had won that game by exactly five points it would be a “push” and the bet would essentially be cancelled.
Applying the math one more time, had we bet $25 per game with the average -110 hold, we would’ve won $68.19 and lost $75.00 for a net loss of $6.81. This is why breaking even in sports betting isn’t breaking even and we have to win 53 percent of our bets to stay on the plus side.
Before we move on to this week’s Friday picks, I promised to cover another favorite betting tool, the 538 Blog. That name may not sound familiar to you, but I’m sure you’ve heard of the 538’s founder, Nate Silver.
Nate made a name for himself by accurately predict the future performance of baseball free agents, but he’s better known for his uncannily accurate election handicapping. That said, Nate will be the first one to say he doesn’t make “predictions” as much as he presents the odds for the most likely outcome of a contest.
Since those early days, the 538 has expanded their horizons by applying that trademark math to NBA, NFL, NHL, MLB, and most major soccer league games. They do dabble in March Madness, but generally avoid college sports. The Blog typically waits until a season is somewhat underway before they start making projections.
The first thing I do every morning is head over to the 538 to set my basic betting groundwork. I don’t put as much emphasis on their data as I do with Oddsshark, because as good as Silver’s math is, he generally ignores our first betting Commandment that sports teams are streaky. If he weighted a team’s most recent ten-games more I believe the Blog would be even more accurate.
538 still hasn’t caught up with the Piston’s vast improvement so you would’ve lost a slew of bets on them if you relied solely on his spread data. They never caught up with the generally bad Oklahoma City Thunder’s incredible mid-season propensity to beat the spread, either.
Their NBA spread predictions, especially in regard to underdogs are generally useless, too. Where the Blog does excel is in predicting the percentage odds of a team winning any game straight up (no spread), which is a great betting foundation.
Here’s a sample of today’s 538 Blog NBA data:
Silver is predicting the Sixers will win by 4.5, the Nuggets and Cavs are a pick ‘em, and the Raptors will beat the lakers by 9. But more importantly, he believes the Mavericks have only a 33 percent chance of beating the Sixers on the road, while the Raptors have a healthy 81 percent probability of beating the Lakers at home.
The 538 also rates each game on a 1 to 100 scale for “quality,” “importance,” and “overall” (explained on the Blog), but the only number I pay attention to is “importance” which indicates how the game will affect the teams’ playoff hopes. Games that have more of a playoff impact tend to turn into defensive battles that narrow the spread.
So, a six-point spread looms much larger as the “importance” rating increases and I’m far more likely to take a longer look at the underdog.
Alright! Now that you have a new tool, let’s move onto this week’s picks:
Mavericks +2.5 vs. Sixers (H)
With the Mavs cashing in last week, we want to be careful to avoid that lethal bettor malady of falling in love with a team that makes us short term money. So, I’ve applied a little extra diligence on this one.
Critical stats:
- The Sixers don’t play nearly as well at home
- Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in the last seven games
- The Sixers are 2-3 ATS in the last five home games
- Philly is 3-3 SU (straight up) in their last six game
- The Mavs road record is third best in the Western Conference
- Dallas in 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games
- The Mavs are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games
- Dallas is 6-1 SU (straight up) in the last seven games
- Dallas is 6-2 ATS vs. the Sixers in their last eight meetings
Though we’ve discovered that there’s no such thing as a sure thing and Silver may not give the Mavs much credence here, the stats are clear. So, we’re putting $25 on the Mavericks. Bolder betters might want to go for the moneyline (Mavs to win outright).
We’re going to avoid the Trail Blazers vs. Nets (H) game because Brooklyn won’t have Kyrie Irving at home (he refuses to get vaccinated), and as bad as the Blazers are, 14.5 points is too much to give to any NBA team.
Raptors (H) -9 vs Lakers
Having lost three straight and seven of their last ten, the hapless Lakers are coming up against the NBA’s hottest team with five straight wins. To make matters worse, the Lakers’ 9-23 road record is one of the worst in the NBA and the aging LeBron James is listed as “questionable” with knee problems.
Critical stats:
- Toronto is 5-0 ATS during their winning streak
- Toronto has won by an average 9 points during the streak
- The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games
- The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last five games in Toronto
Again, 9-point spreads make me nervous, but with Toronto cruising and the Lakers falling apart I’m pretty good with this bet. If the Lakers were playing at home it would be an entirely different story.
We’re also going to walk away from the Grizzlies vs. Hawks (H) game because the stats don’t add up to a 53 percent or better odds of winning the bet. The Hawks may be 0-7 ATS in their last seven games, but they’ve won five straight at home. Memphis may be on a roll, but they’re an insurmountable eight games behind the number one seed Suns while the Hawks are clinging to that last Eastern Conference playoff spot. That puts the Hawks on the plus incentive side.
Knicks -6 (H) vs. Wizards
What? Not only are we betting on the lowly Knicks, but we’re giving up six point, too? Yep! Because the streaky Knicks are 7-3 ATS in the last ten games while the out-of-playoff-contention and Bradley Beal-less Wizards are 3-6-1 ATS in the same span.
Critical stats:
- New York is 7-0 ATS in the last seven games
- Washington is 1-4 ATS in the last five road games
- Washington has lost five straight games
- The Wizards have lost by an average 12 points during that streak
It’s the last stat that made me pull the trigger on this one.
Nuggets -2.5 vs. Cavaliers (H)
The surging Nuggets have come into their own in the second half while the injury riddled Cavaliers are fading fast. Denver plays as well on the road (22-15) as they do at home (20-13).
Critical stats:
- Denver is 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games
- Denver is 7-3 SU in their last ten winning those seven games by an average 13 points
- The Cavs are 2-3-1 ATS in the last six home games
- The Cavs are 1-7-1 ATS as underdogs in the last nine game
This is another case where I believe the books are being far too generous towards Cleveland. I would’ve expected the spread to be at least 6 points on this one.
Since I’m not willing to give away 15.5 points to Oklahoma City and I don’t have a lot of faith that the Thunder will cover, the Thunder vs Heat (H) is another no go.
The NBA worst Rockets (H) against the 8-27 on the road Pacers? That’s a coin flip and we don’t bet on coin flips.
Spurs -3 (H) vs. Pelicans
Just when New Orleans gets C. J. McCollum back, forward Brandon Ingram goes down with a hamstring strain and the mediocre Pelicans can’t afford to lose that 22.8 points per game.
Critical stats:
- The Spurs are playing at home
- The Pelicans are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games
- New Orleans is 0-7 ATS in the last seven games in San Antonio
- The Pelicans have only won one of five games since Ingram went down
So, this is more a bet against the Pelicans than it is on the Spurs. If the spread were any larger than a three-pointer I’d pass this one up, too.
With both teams becoming utterly unreliable as of late, 4-5-1 ATS and 3-6-1 ATS respectively, I’m not touching the Clippers vs Jazz (H) game with a ten-foot pole.
Celtics -10 vs Kings (H)
Much like betting on the Mavs to beat the Rockets by 10.5 last week, giving up 10 points to the Kings, who aren’t nearly as bad at home (16-21) as they are on the road (9-25), makes me nervous. But the stats make a clear case for that large spread.
Critical stats:
- The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games
- Boston has won eight out of their last ten by an average 13 points
- The Kings have lost 7 of their last 10 by an average 11 points
My basic theory here is if the Celtics can beat the Golden State Warriors and their second-best NBA defense by a whopping 22 points on Wednesday (3/16), they should have no trouble dispensing with the slumping Kings.
Suns -5 (H) vs Bulls
The oddsmakers are clearly still showing some respect for the fading Bulls here because this spread really should be eight to nine points.
Critical stats:
- The Suns have won seven of their last ten by an average 17 points (wow!)
- Phoenix is 29-8 at home
- The Suns are 4-1 ATS in their last five games
- Phoenix is 7-3 SU against the bulls in their last ten meetings
- The Bulls have lost seven of their last 10 by an average 11 points
- Chicago is 1-8 ATS in their last nine games
- The Bulls are 0-6 ATS in the last six road games
- The Bulls are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games
I know it’s hard to be against a Chicago team, but we can’t afford to have sacred cows and everything lines up for the Suns.
Phew! We just covered a dozen Friday NBA games.
Oh! And before we go, my longsuffering editor Paul mentioned the possibility of covering March Madness, but the unknown St. Peter’s Peacocks upsetting the powerhouse Kentucky Wildcats last night is exactly why I REFUSE to bet on the NCAA tournament. I won’t even do a bracket anymore because every stat goes right out the window in that one and done tournament.
I’d love to put a fun bet on my beloved Loyola Ramblers, but as all Illinois sports bettors know, it’s illegal to formally bet on any Illinois college team. So, I’ll simply end this installment with GO RAMBLERS!
