(Welcome to the second edition of a new weekly feature for Fox Valley Magazine, Jeff’s Sports Bets. Local punter Jeff gives his methodology and picks each Friday for NBA and, eventually, MLB games. And maybe a little March Madness thrown in. If you’re unfamiliar with betting, check out the introductory article, where Jeff begins by defining terms and discussing his process. Enjoy!)
Bank After First Week: DOWN $53.55
Before we get started on this weeks picks, let’s review last week’s:
Philadelphia 76ers (H) 125 – Cleveland Cavaliers 119
This is one of those always fascinating cases where a “sure thing” doesn’t quite work out that way. The Cavs got off to an uncharacteristically fast start, and even though Philly caught them in the fourth quarter, they didn’t quite beat the 7.5-point spread. So, that’s a loss.
Atlanta Hawks 113 – Washington Wizards (H) 108
It was a little closer than I expected, but the Hawks beat the 4.5 spread by half a point which still makes it a win. Phew!
Detroit Pistons (H) 111 – Indiana Pacers 106
Another good bet with the surging Pistons winning outright, so we didn’t need those extra 2.5 points. If you bet on the moneyline (Detroit to win) as I did, then you made a little more money. Either way, it’s a win.
Chicago Bulls (H) 112 – Milwaukee Bucks 118
Another heartbreaker as those rare Bulls plus 5.5 points fell half a point short. The bet looked good for 3.5 quarters until the Bulls faded at the end, once again. This trend does not bode well for their title. A loss by 0.5 may be a moral victory, but it’s still a loss.
Utah Jazz 90 – New Orleans Pelicans 124
This is what bettors call a “massive upset.” The Jazz were 9 – 1 in their last ten games and they were trouncing opponents by an average of 15 points throughout that streak. Though I’d take Utah -4 against the Pelicans every time, it certainly didn’t work out this time. That’s a loss!
Phoenix Suns (H) 114 -6.5 vs New York Knicks 115
To add insult to injury, the Suns lost to the lowly Knicks by a point when we had them winning by at least 6.5 points. This is another bet I’d make every time because the quickest way to lose money is to try to predict upsets. The top team in the NBA minus 6.5 points against a bottom third team that had just lost 9 of their last 10 games is always a good bet. It just didn’t work out that time, so it’s a loss.
That means we won two and lost four. Had we bet $25 with the typical -110 hold on each game, we would’ve won $45.46, but lost $100, for a net loss of $53.55. Not the worst day, but it would been a bit more fun if our debut betting week had worked out a bit better.
Let’s see if we can do better on this week’s games:
Timberwolves -7 vs. Magic (H)
On the surface, this one looks like another sure thing with the 13th best team taking on the worst team in the NBA. But as is often the case as the end of the season draws near, a few of the bottom feeders start getting their act together. And Orlando is 4 – 6 in their last ten games, so let’s break it down.
Critical stats:
- The Wolves have won six straight
- The Wolves are 6-0 against the spread during the streak
- The Wolves have won by an astounding average 24 points during the streak
- The Magic have a TERRIBLE 7-23 home record
Though the Magic are a surprising 5-2 ATS in their last seven games, the Wolves and Bucks are playing the best basketball in the NBA right now, and I’m surprised this line isn’t double digits. I might put $30 on this one.
Pistons +14 vs. Celtics (H)
As good as the Celtics have been in the second half, two touchdowns is way too many points to hand to a team that’s starting to gel.
Critical stats:
- Detroit is 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games
- Detroit is 7-0 ATS against the Celtics in their last seven games
- Detroit is 6-4 straight up (SU) in their last ten games
We could go through the Celtic’s stellar stats and they’re likely to win the game, but our 53 percent odds betting theory clearly indicates that 14 points is too much to give away here.
Heat (H) -6 vs. Cavaliers
The Cavs have been one of the best teams ATS this season at 38-27, but the Heat have been even better at an amazing 44-23.
Critical stats:
- The Heat are 23-8 at home
- Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six games
- Miami has won by an average 12 points in their last six wins
- The Cavs are 3-6 ATS in the last 9 games
- The Cavs are 4-11 ATS against the Heat in their last 15 games
- Cleveland is 3-7 SU in their last ten road games
- Cleveland has lost by an average 9 points in those seven road losses
With the Heat one game away from the coveted second play playoff seed they’ll be out to avenge their recent blowout loss to the Suns and beat the spread here.
Mavericks -10.5 vs. Rockets (H)
Giving up 10.5 points to any NBA teams always makes me nervous, but the stats clearly line up in favor of the Mavericks.
Critical stats:
- Dallas is 5-0 ATS in their last five road games
- Dallas is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 games
- The Rockets are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games
- Houston has been beaten by an average 13 points in their last seven losses
Having been lost to the Knicks by 30 points in their last outing, the Mavericks are going to look to bounce back in a big way.
Jazz -6 vs Spurs (H)
Despite their debacle against the Pelicans last week, the Jazz are the fifth best team in the NBA and the Spurs are the seventh worst.
Critical stats:
- The Jazz are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games against the Spurs
- The Spurs are 3-7 ATS in their last ten home games
- The Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
- The Spurs home record is an abysmal 12-20
With the Jazz continuing their second half surge and a very reasonable spread here, I’m more than happy to put my money on the favorite.
Suns (H) -5 vs. Raptors
The Suns back on track and the Raptors are fading fast, so I’ll be more than happy to cede five points on this contest.
Critical stats:
- The Suns are 28-7 at home
- The Suns are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against Toronto
- The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
The Suns seem to have adjusted to temporary life without Chris Paul, and at 7-3 in their last ten games, I’ll go with the favorite one more.
As for the rest of the games, we’re following our basic rule that if we can’t find a way to move the odds to at least 53 percent in our favor, then we won’t bet.
Once again, please remember these spreads are moving targets and they may change throughout the day. If they shift for the better that’s a bonus, but if it goes the other way, use your judgement to determine if it’s still worthwhile to bet.
Next week we’ll cover another one of my favorite betting tools.
