This morning, the Chicago Tribune published an article declaring that “suburban women voters” would become even more politically important in light of recent indications that the Supreme Court is ready to overturn the Court’s controversial 1973 decision in Roe vs. Wade that effectively removed any legal barriers to abortion throughout the full term of pregnancy. The article strongly implied that such voters would fall heavily on the side of abortion rights, an assessment in line with conventional wisdom across the spectrum.
But is this conventional wisdom outdated?
It is certainly true that since Roe was decided, abortion rights have been considered a “women’s issue,” under the assumption that women’s attitudes were fairly monolithic with respect to “choice.”
However, over the past few decades, women’s opinions have appeared to gradually change, in a manner similar to changes in the overall populace, moving towards a more moderate position, one that recognizes some restrictions on abortion as legitimate, while maintaining full support for abortion access early in pregnancies.
The latest polling reflects this shift.
Let’s start with overall attitudes towards Roe and abortion restrictions.
Looking at the breadth of recent polls (see 538 and NPR for examples), a fairly clear picture seems to emerge – a picture that seems contradictory at first glance.
In terms of Roe, a strong majority is against overturning it.
And yet, when the same individuals are asked about restrictions on abortion – restrictions not allowed under Roe – a strong majority supports them.
This suggests a broad misunderstanding of what Roe vs. Wade actually says, and how it has been interpreted by the courts in subsequent rulings.
The most popular restrictions, according to the polling, relate to fetal development as reflected in the point in time of the pregnancy the abortion is undertaken. Vast majorities of respondents – 60-70% – support legal abortion during the first trimester (12 weeks). However, those same respondents widely support, by almost identical margins, restrictions or outright bans in the second and third trimesters – again, restrictions that are effectively forbidden under Roe.
As for women? The data suggests that, as NPR puts it, “the most acute divide among Americans on the issue of abortion, arguably, is not a gender divide but between the parties — and of women of different parties. As evidence, NPR cites some stark figures:
- 77% of Democratic women identified as “pro-choice,” while 68% of Republican women identified as “pro-life”
- Eighty-four percent of Democratic women said they are more likely to support state laws that decriminalize abortion and make laws less strict; 62% of Republican women said they are more likely to support laws that criminalize abortion or make laws stricter
- On Roe, 62% of Republican women said overturn it or add restrictions; 73% of Democratic women said keep it the way it is, expand it to allow abortions under any circumstance or reduce some of the restrictions.
Taken altogether, the data above suggests that the politics of abortion in a post-Roe world may not be as cut-and-dried as many assume. What emerges is a rejection of the absolutists on both sides of the issue, and a willingness to accept abortion in the early stages of fetal development accompanied by a rejection of abortion after a certain point.
In Illinois, that distinction could very well upset the conventional wisdom expressed in the Tribune’s report.
Although it’s likely that the average voter in Illinois doesn’t know it, in 2019 the Democratic-dominated legislature passed, and Democratic Governor J.B. Pritzker gleefully signed, one of the most permissive abortion laws in the country. The legislation effectively made abortion legal until birth, while also removing parental consent and almost entirely deregulating abortion providers.
Governor Pritzker himself approvingly noted the law’s uniquely permissive scope, proudly announcing that the law made Illinois “the most progressive in the nation for reproductive health care.”
At the national level, the Democratic-controlled House has passed the “Women’s Health Protection Act,” which mirrors the Illinois law to the extent of allowing unrestricted abortion until birth. According to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the Senate will vote on the bill as early as this week.
So in Illinois, and nationally, Democrats appear to be taking the absolutist position – zero restrictions through the entire pregnancy – while Republican legislation has been roughly within the parameters of the majority opinion – legal in the first 6-12 weeks, restricted in the second and third trimesters.
Which approach will garner support in upcoming elections? It depends on whether you believe the polls or the conventional wisdom. But there very well may some surprises coming for both parties if the debate moves to the political arena in earnest.
